>> i have to come to talk about the fiscal cliff? practicing matti >> we all have fiscal cliff fatigue. >> yeah, i think it's totally understandable, but it still hasn't been dealt with as we've just seen. we think there will be a fiscal slide. we have kind of three scenarios in find. a full fiscal cliff, a bunny slope or something in the middle, a fiscal slide. and i think that's where we're headed. we believe it will be in the neighborhood of 1.5% of gdp in fiscal adjustment and i think that's obviously better than the full lack of 4.5. and it's better than -- worse than something that wouldn't make too much difference. 1.5 will make an important difference still. >> and what's in that 1.5% in terms of tax hikes and spending cuts? >> probably are going to be a brunch of different things in it, but the main thing that will be close to 1% of u.s. gdp is the expiring of the payroll tax cut. both sides of the aisle agree on that. it will fall disproceportiona a on middle income households. >> and instead of the bush tax cuts for exampl